Friday, October 24, 2008
To Bridge or not to Bridge? That is the question!
This whole bridge process has been a mess from the beginning. Mr. Hahn decides to do a survey on the basis of a request by one person. Why? Does anyone think that Hahn would do a survey to find out if ferry fares are too high if one of us asked him? Would he fund a referendum so we could all have a vote? Why is a bridge to Gabriola important to Hahn? That ours is the only island he seems interested in bridging should make people suspicious.
He doesn’t tell us what kind of bridge, how much it will cost, what the tolls will be, whether the tolls will go up as soon as the ferry is gone, or how long it will take to build. We are supposed to make up our minds on the basis of no concrete facts.
This is the 4th time in 30 years that we have dealt with this issue. Last time (about 14 years ago) it was going to be at a cost of $50 million! Today that could likely mean $100 million.
The government is highly unlikely to spend that kind of money on 4,500 people so it would probably be financed by investors who will want at least 12% to 20% annual return on their money. That means tolls will have to be high enough to generate that return - so divide $12 to 20 million dollars by 4,500 people and you get the toll cost per person per year - and that is not even covering, repaying the principle, maintenance costs or the normal cost overruns! Even adding in summer people and tourists the cost per person is enormous. In the long term, as there is no way for us to influence tolls more than ferry fares, I think the tolls might end up more than the ferry rates.
The FAC had a chance to end this farce, they could have said no to the survey. Instead they chose to pass it on to the VIU and who knows where that will go? Therefore the question of whether we want a survey or not seems to remain open. I think there is a good chance this issue will drag on to a referendum next year with all the emotion and turmoil that will cause, but at least a referendum allows us to settle this democratically – with everyone getting a vote.
Mr. Hahn wants only one question on the survey - something like this… “Would you want a bridge if it cost less?” - What does cost less mean? This issue is not just about costing less money it is about costing a way of life.
The question should be “Do you want Gabriola to remain an island?
He doesn’t tell us what kind of bridge, how much it will cost, what the tolls will be, whether the tolls will go up as soon as the ferry is gone, or how long it will take to build. We are supposed to make up our minds on the basis of no concrete facts.
This is the 4th time in 30 years that we have dealt with this issue. Last time (about 14 years ago) it was going to be at a cost of $50 million! Today that could likely mean $100 million.
The government is highly unlikely to spend that kind of money on 4,500 people so it would probably be financed by investors who will want at least 12% to 20% annual return on their money. That means tolls will have to be high enough to generate that return - so divide $12 to 20 million dollars by 4,500 people and you get the toll cost per person per year - and that is not even covering, repaying the principle, maintenance costs or the normal cost overruns! Even adding in summer people and tourists the cost per person is enormous. In the long term, as there is no way for us to influence tolls more than ferry fares, I think the tolls might end up more than the ferry rates.
The FAC had a chance to end this farce, they could have said no to the survey. Instead they chose to pass it on to the VIU and who knows where that will go? Therefore the question of whether we want a survey or not seems to remain open. I think there is a good chance this issue will drag on to a referendum next year with all the emotion and turmoil that will cause, but at least a referendum allows us to settle this democratically – with everyone getting a vote.
Mr. Hahn wants only one question on the survey - something like this… “Would you want a bridge if it cost less?” - What does cost less mean? This issue is not just about costing less money it is about costing a way of life.
The question should be “Do you want Gabriola to remain an island?
